President Thabo Mbeki
As dour and impersonal as they are, statistics are indeed a powerful characterization of the scale and nature of the problems that beset this continent. Very briefly then, in this first decade of the 21st century Sub-Saharan Africa with a population estimated at 700 million:
Life expectancy at birth stands at 46 yearsInfant mortality per 1000 births is 105
27% of young females in SSA are illiterate
28.5 million individuals are estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS
The Gross National Income per capita in 2002 was $450
Contrast this with the East Asia & the Pacific region, and one begins to appreciate the magnitude of the challenge that our continent faces: East Asia's life expectancy is 70, infant mortality rates one-third our SSA and GNI per capital more than double that of SSA.
But perhaps the most widely know measure of vulnerability on the continent is the fact that still, in this 21st century, close to half of SSA's population lives on less than $1 a day. What is often not appreciated however is that two additional concerns in this regard need to be highlighted:
Firstly, that even amongst the world's poor, those in SSA are far worse off than individuals in the rest of the developing world. The so-called poverty gap ratio tells us that the average poor African household earns an income that is 20% below this $1 a day line?..simply put the poor in SSA are relatively worse off than the poor anywhere else in the world.
Secondly, while the rest of the world has managed to translate economic growth into reasonable poverty reduction, this has not been the case in Africa. Hence, for every 1% point of economic growth on the continent, poverty has fallen over the last 20 years by 1.23% only. Compare this with the rest of the world, where the reduction is more than double this. This continent, apart from inadequate growth rates is also not translating growth into poverty alleviation.
Of course, as this audience well knows, there is a global plan in place, encapsulated in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of the United Nations. These 8 goals represent a universal charter that all of us, and indeed all the world's leaders, international institutions and governments have committed themselves to. Who can then disagree with these international goals? I will however, a little later on reflect on some cautionary notes that need to be appended to these high ideals encapsulated within the MDGs.
Generally?what are the continent's chances of meeting the variety of MDGs?:
On poverty: it seems unlikely that the continent will meet the MDG of halving poverty by 2015. Indeed it is more likely that the number of poor will increase over this period, and this remains a stringing indictment of our ability as Africans to turn the corner on economic development.
On the remaining MDGs, achievements are more varied across the continent with countries such as Uganda, Mauritania, Burkina Faso and Chad reporting some level of progress toward the MDGs. But this progress is too sporadic and varied to represent a generalized movement forward for SSA as a whole.
Indeed, it is clear that a critical mass of economies on the continent are very far off from achieving the majority of MDGs as a result directly of suffering from severe and persistent conflict or chronically poor governance structures. It is this marginalized core that we should be concentrating on, if we are to achieve some semblance of progress toward the MDGs.
I would like to though signal some caution on the interpretation and value of the MDGs to us as Africans, and to the world at large:
Firstly, and I borrow liberally here from one of your esteemed delegates present here, we should be careful as Africans - that at the global level - the achievement of the first (and arguably most visible) MDG of halving the incidence of poverty by 2015, does not become a success story because of India and China. Their large populations combined with their phenomenal growth rates may mean that we could declare by 2015 that the incidence of world poverty has fallen. Yet we know that this supposed victory against poverty, will mask the true picture, which we already see being sketched before our eyes - namely that poverty at the country level and in particular in African countries - will have increased. This is a call to all of you gathered here to ensure that Africa remains on the agenda and in the minds of those driving the MDGs, and that our challenges are not blurred at the global level, by the dominant economic performance of a few countries.
Secondly, and relatedly, there are as we all know 'lies, damned lies' and closely allied there are 'statistics'! The fact that the proportion of poor may have fallen does not mean that the number of people (because of population growth) who are poor has also fallen. For example, while the incidence of poverty increased by 2% in SSA, the number of poor individuals on the continent increased by 24%. We should therefore not allow statistics to be massaged in order to fool ourselves, and indeed the poor themselves.
Finally, as Africans let us not (as we are often inclined to) view the MDGs as cast in stone?.we should always be looking for variants and different policy approaches within the MDGs that may still achieve our universal goals of rising living standards on the continent. We should prioritise in the manner we see fits as Africans, and always be searching for homegrown and relevant solutions.
We know that the anchors for a successful development strategy revolve around a variety of different interventions that include for example,
Rural development: On average rural households in Africa spend 70% of their income on food: There are therefore severe household poverty traps in existence in our rural and deep rural areas. A focused strategy aimed at uplifting smallholder agriculture through the adoption of modern technologies, crop diversification, efficient management of natural resources and improvements in labour and capital production are the seeds for a renewed growth in African agriculture.
Infrastructural provision & development: The provision of adequate, efficient and cost-effective road, rail and port systems remain an essential ingredient if Africa is to realize gains from trade and encourage both domestic and foreign investment. Relatedly, in trying to break these household poverty traps, provision of this infrastructure would also allow indigent households to enter new markets and grow their businesses.
Private Sector Development: Yes, we do need greater foreign direct investment marked by a move away from investors seeing the continent as a homogenous block. However, organic private sector development, as I am sure some of you gathered here will have written about, revolves around encouraging the growth, sustenance and development of the SMME sector in SSA. Already, in many African countries the informal sector accounts for about 60% of employment in urban areas and 25% of industrial output. The homegrown engine of growth that we are seeking for this continent, has to have the informal sector as a key ingredient.
Good Governance: Good governance practices are now firmly established as a necessary condition for successful growth and development. In SSA, this translates into the need for participatory forms of political governance, and the establishment of accountable and transparent systems of governance. The respect for property rights and the rule of law must become a standard feature of all African countries. While some 40 countries in Africa have undertaken multi-party elections, there remain governance problems - most notably perhaps by the continued presence of corruption in many SSA economies. In the latter case for example, Trasnparency International's Corruption Index has at least 8 African countries ranked at the bottom-end of their index?..far too high a representation to engender confidence in our governance abilities as a continent.
Education, health and social services: Needless to say, in trying to build, what we in this province have termed 'A Better Home for All', appropriate and responsible expenditure on health, education and those social services that will improve the livelihood prospects of the poor is essential. It is of course the HIV/AIDS pandemic though that looms as possibly the largest long-term threat to our continent's future and a combination of learning from successful innovators, such as Uganda, intensive preventative programmes - and not forgetting the provision of anti-retrovirals to those living with this deadly disease.
Finally, our own homegrown vehicle to, as President Mbeki says "be firmly confident about the certainty of a better future for all our peoples" is the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). NEPAD offers Africans the opportunity to invigorate our development agenda through consensual politics, to commit ourselves to peace, security, sound economic management and good governance. The myriad of specific projects under the ambit of NEPAD is testimony to the infinite possibilities that the partnership promises for our continent.
I urge you then, as part of the intelligentsia dedicated to this continent to exercise your minds and engage vigorously and honestly about the future of this great continent of ours.
